Кlymenko predicted dollar exchange rate by the end of the year
After rather stable dollar exchange rate, it has increased again in recent days.
That is why, plethora Ukrainians are lost in thought about planning the budget and events, which should be expected for. Oleksandr Klymenko, the head of the «Uspishna Kraina» party published a forecast concerning US dollar exchange rate by the end of the year on his Facebook page.
“Key factors, which influence on dollar’s exchange rate – are export, energy balance, paying capacity of population, external environment, politics and administrative regulation”, – the politician wrote and explained each of these bullet points.
“Export, as it is known, consists of industrial producing and harvest. However, did you notice some reforms, which are aimed at stimulating of export? Unfortunately, reforms are like Pokémon’s – it is hiding in order not to allow Ukrainian government to «catch it». Thus, the government decided to replace it by simple manipulations of statistics”, – Klymenko believes.
Concerning energy balance. Ukraine is still dependent on two main and the most unstable sources, namely, gas from Russia and coal from Donbas. The situation with energy supplies has been critical for a long time. “The government has not found a solution yet. Well, except for the instructions, how to do “weather shamanism” in order to obtain warm autumn and winter (such course of events took place during last 2 years)”, – the leader of the “Uspishna Kraina” explained.
There is no need to talk about the paying capacity of population. “It goes for a minimum. Therefore, influence of ordinary Ukrainians on the rare is not so significant (as it was before)”.
Klymenko is confident that the political factor is the most unpredictable in such a set. According to him, there is a similar course of events related to external environment, which was transferred from the “global hope” category to “global disappointment”. “Consequently, there is no need to hope for the next tranche of financial aid, which is so anticipated by the NBU. It’s similar to anticipating of snow in August”, – the former minister of revenues and duties analysed.
Oleksandr Klymenko also explained the point of «Administrative regulation»: “The National Bank has learned to artificially constrain the growth of rate despite the all rules of economics and the market. What about market at all? Half of the banks are destroyed; the other half accurately execute all the instructions due to potential punishment”.
“In general, despite the lack of optimism in almost all factors, we should not expect for sharp leaps of exchange rate (neither rise, nor fall). If there is no force majeure (unfortunately, our country is not immuned from it), the hryvnia will be falling. By the end of the year, there is a chance of 70% that the dollar will reach UAH 27 per USD 1. If course of events follows pessimistic scenario, we should be ready for UAH 30 UAH per USD 1 by the end of the year” – he wrote.
In the end of the publication the leader of the «Uspishna Kraina» presented his vision of the occurred situation: «It is obvious that people, who have gone over a leap from UAH 8 to 25 per USD 1, are not afraid of such devaluation anymore. If we lived through the last 2 years, we would survive today, – the majority believes. For how long will we allow random people to perform “experiments”? It cannot be done with our economy… our country and our lives…»