Alternative forecast of Oleksandr Klymenko: Ukrainians will become poorer by 25% in spring
Oleksandr Klymenko wrote about it on his Facebook page, commenting the messages of the government about obtaining of the next tranche from the IMF and prospects for strengthening of the national currency.
According to him, the food will not rise up in price, meanwhile expensive imported goods and utilities will promptly rise in price.
Increasing of tariffs on utility services to the “cost-recovery” – is one of the key conditions of the IMF, reminds the ex-minister. This condition will be satisfied at the expense of ordinary citizens.
“Here is a simple arithmetic: subsidies to “Naftogaz” in 2014 amounted about UAH 100 billion. In 2015 it should have been reduced to UAH 30 billion … In this case, there was allocated UAH 12.5 billion subsidies for low-income families in 2015. The difference in the amount of UAH 57.5 billion will be covered by the pockets of Ukrainians “, – said Oleksandr Klymenko.
Obviously, even doubling of the amount allocated for subsidies, which was provided by the Ministry of Finance in the updated budget, will not solve the problem fully.
It is also expected to further increase in patrol prices by 20-25%, which will lead to a rise in price of consumer goods due to higher transportation costs. Most food prices will increase by 5-15% due to the fact that food products produced in Ukraine and the devaluation of the hryvnia will affect only a part of its cost, first of all, the growth of transportation costs, utility costs, as well as some of the cost of ingredients and packaging.
At the same time, cars, electronics and household equipment – fully imported goods – will cost the citizens of one and a half times more expensive than it is now. The price will be affected not only by the transport costs and the new utility tariffs, but also by the national currency rate.
” Allocation of targeted loans for the restoration of gold reserves and stabilization of the banking system gave Cabinet reasons to believe that the hryvnia should rise to 21.7 UAH / $. However, in view of the duration of this process, as well as the risks of full-scale war, a serious improvement during the nearest months is improbable. The most likely exchange rate in spring is 23-24 UAH / $ “, – he said.
Ex-minister believes that salaries of Ukrainians will not have time to follow the pace devaluation of the hryvnia, especially in light of freezing indexation of income, which is also stipulated in the agreement with the IMF. Therefore, the real incomes of Ukrainians will fall by 15-25%.
” It is case of each person, whether trust me or not… However, there is really few reasons for optimism ” – sums up Klymenko.
Link to source: Kp.ua