The war and Minsk. What will be the results of negotiations of “Normandy Four” in Berlin
Today the Normandy Four will meet in Berlin. The last time the format of Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande and Putin met was year and a half ago in Belarus, when it was signed the Minsk Agreement.
Since that time, it has occurred plethora important events on global arena. It comes about series of terrorist attacks in Europe, aggravation of situation related to refugees, a new phase of the war in Syria. There were elections in Germany, where the party of the Chancellor was showed in a bad light. Presidential election in France is coming. Finally, the US election is not so far. Its results are awaited by the whole world community (without exaggeration). Despite the desires of Ukrainian government, the interest related to resolution of the conflict is subsiding each day.
On the eve of the meeting of the Normandy Four, Kyiv was at the crossroads.
On the left, there was implementation of the Minsk agreements. It comes about civilizational choice because it provides full ceasefire. However, for the Poroshenko regime it also means necessity of putting down the dissatisfaction of aggressive minority, which was demonstrated during the torch-lit march.
On the right, there was implementation of military scenario due to refuse to carry out the Minsk process. As a result, there should be the new format of peaceful settlement. It does not matter how whether it is called – Chisinau or London. It is important that failure of Minsk will lay a mine of misunderstanding and future format.
It is worth mentioning: the main parties of the negotiations – Kyiv and Moscow – will go to Berlin with different feelings. Poroshenko “does not feel very optimistic.” Vladimir Putin has not described it. However, its participation points at the existence of previous agreements, which are advantageous to the Russian Federation. It comes about either coordination of the Law on elections with Kyiv, or the draft law on amnesty for all people with weapons, or coherent road map for the implementation of Minsk.
What should we expect for?
Firstly, the visual pressure on Vladimir Putin by the fourth round of sanctions against Russia, which are connected to the course of events in Syria. Secondly, real and strong, but not visual pressure on Petro Poroshenko (is it ok that I underestimate the scale of the historical figure?). From all sides. He will be told, what will happen to him and Ukraine, if Kyiv proceeds to delay the Minsk or leaved the game. Nowadays, Poroshenko is responsible for compliance with agreements. Let us recall, the ball is on Ukrainian field. The majority of tasks should be done by Ukraine itself. Moreover, it should be the first in a row.
In general, there are plethora reasons for fading an optimism of the President of Ukraine.
Poroshenko has all necessary things for turning to the left at the crossroads: the majority of the Parliament (it has easily collected votes for the questionable judicial reform), agitational platforms (nowadays, the President, not the oligarchs, keeps his hand on remote control), impoverished economy (the country will not survive its further decline).
“Turn to the right” will inevitably lead Poroshenko to renewal of the war, two or three “heroic” surrenders and sudden death of the regime. On the other hand, it can lead to exhausting war, the endless war, prolonged and senseless was as it was during the Thirty Years‘ War in Europe, or The Hundred Years‘ War of British and French crown.
Is Poroshenko confident in the fact that Ukraine will survive after another year of military operation? Does he afraid of dissatisfaction of his soldiers – past, present, future? Or is it better not to hear methodological reminder: “Have you left the route?”
Even if in Berlin it is impossible to achieve some results – too many meetings ended with promise of Poroshenko to “work on implementation” – there will be the same result. It comes about approaching the inevitable outcome. There will be no frost – there will be either war or Minsk. We have only two-or three months: after the elections in the United States, interests of the United States Department of State in Kyiv will be reduced, Berlin and Paris are tired of noodles on their ears, which were hanging by Poroshenko, the land at the front is covered by ice. It’s time to make decisions and come back on the route.