Three Nuts for Poroshenko or Day P, March 17
March 17, President can make a real step forward in order to take country out of crisis and announce reboot of the Parliament. However, since neither the President, nor the Prime Minister, nor even MPs do not need such way out, it is very comfortable for them to “fish” in turbid water. Thus, we will become witnesses of unprecedented manipulation and substitution of categories. Such a thimblerig game by professional political fraudsters.
I would like to clear a few legal bullet points.
Reviving of the Constitution text 2004 version led to renewal of old procedure of coalition’s dissolution. Nowadays, COALITIONS CAN BE FORMED and, consequently, DISSOLVED NOT BY INDIVIDUALS, BUT BY FRACTIONS. It means that MPs would not be able stay or be included to a coalition, if their fraction stepped down. The same principle of forming a coalition – only by deputy factions – is fixed in the coalition agreement, which was signed in autumn 2014.
The argument of Vladimir Groisman that coalition operated, because it includes 237 deputies, is just untenable.
That is why the argument of Vladimir Groisman that coalition operated, because it includes 237 deputies, is just untenable. Nowadays, the coalition includes only two factions – BPP and the “Narodniy Front”. Two of them includes only 217 “bayonets”. Everything else – is manipulation.
Moving on. According to regulation, disintegration of the coalition is easy to register (in procedural context): it is enough for fractions to inform about its decision to leave the coalition in written form, and the Verkhovna Rada should declare it during the plenary session.
I would like to remind you: the Radical Party in September 2015, the Batkivshchyna and the Samopomich in the middle of February 2016 submitted written announcement of termination of its participation and withdrawal of claims. The head of the Verkhovna Rada made relevant statement. These documents and statements are the legal basis for disintegration of the coalition. Additional Groisman’s statements on termination of its operation not required. Mathematical reduction of MPs provides the President with the right to dissolve parliament 30 days after leaving of Samopomich. That is all.
In legal terms, the Verkhovna Rada will have “Day P” (due to its efficiency) on March 17.
In legal terms, the Verkhovna Rada will have “Day P” (due to its efficiency) on March 17. Despite the fact that Poroshenko uses each opportunity in order not to dissolve the Parliament and announce early elections, there is almost no options.
On the one hand, Poroshenko can simply freeze situation until September, till new session of the Rada. In such case, Yatsenyuk still will be legitimate Prime Minister during next six months, until the Parliament will try to dismiss the Cabinet again.
However, after the “unfreezing” situation will have uncontrollable political contradictions. It will be irresistibly. In this case the President will not have other options than to dissolve ineffective Parliament and to announce re-election at the end of autumn. It is impossible to imagine, what will happen with the country and its citizens during this period under such “mega professional” control.
If Poroshenko announces the disintegration of the coalition and declares about creation of a new coalition of the “old” members, there will be formed new government, which, in fact, will repeat all the sins of the old one, no matter who will head it. This government will have difficulties in forming the agenda, including dialogue with the IMF and other international lenders. There is only one outcome: after six months of operation, the government will have to resign, the country will have to dive into early parliamentary elections again.
Debates concerning the technocratic Prime Minister under current parliament – is no more than a utopia.
I have to say, that debates concerning the technocratic Prime Minister under current parliament – is no more than a utopia. The fact that the government of technocrats obviously has no political support in Parliament will lead to derogation from the quota principle at the stage of formation, which is fixed in Constitution. In this case, MPs will be asked to choose a Prime Minister, and to provide him with carte blanche to form his own team.
Under Ukrainian realities, Ministers still will be offered by the parties. Otherwise, authorities will lose financial flows. Neither Poroshenko, nor his supporters can admit it. Thus, what is the sense of the efforts during these two years?
Meanwhile, the head of the government is actively demonstrating that he is ready to sacrifice himself and to resign of his own free will. Anyway, he said this statement during the night meeting in the Presidential Administration on March 14. However, it is nothing more than a mere farce!
After all, Prime Minister claimed the following: he offered to name the candidate for the post of Prime Minister, to show his program and, the most important, to provide the presence of 226 MPs under the dome “in favor of” this head of government. The President does not have such candidate. Yatsenyuk knew about it. Thus, his game in “insulted dignity” – is the best decision. By the way, his offer to leave in case of existence of a new candidate is legally preposterous and ridiculous. Such phrase would make sense if the Constitution and the Law on the Cabinet of Ministers included the provision: «The Prime Minister can not resign if he does not like the candidacy of the next Prime Minister».
Attempts of Yatsenyuk to prolong his position as a Prime Minister are rather mercantile.
In fact, attempts of Yatsenyuk to prolong his position as a Prime Minister are rather mercantile. The process of privatization of strategic objects is about to start. Besides the factories and power companies, which were agreed to pass to Western investors, there will remain dozens of interesting objects, which can be bought for nothing. If you remember that thousands of hectares of arable land are going to be put to gamble, it becomes clear: this game is really worth the candle for Yatsenyuk.
In fact, Poroshenko and his technologists have few options. It is obvious that early parliamentary elections will be appointed only when his rating decreases. Nowadays, power is slipping from his hands. However, there is still profit.
Today the most important question is: which of these options is the most beneficial for Ukrainians? Considering the abovementioned points, there is one way out: reboot the Parliament, government, and the President, etc. …
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